S.J.Res. 112 — A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the Bureau of Industry and Security of the Department of Commerce relating to "One Year…

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States C… — privileged, so 51 senators settle it: 74% on the floor, <1% to stick downstream.

reaches a floor vote

81%

passes if voted (stage model)

12%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 74% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 8% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 59 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 28–91 (quartiles 48–73). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Privileged measure (CRA / reconciliation / similar): not filibusterable — a simple majority is the real line.

Receipts

Sponsor: Elizabeth Warren (D). Latest action (2026-04-30): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 403.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).