S.J.Res. 131 — A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection relating to the withdrawal of the rule rela…

5%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States C… — privileged, so 51 senators settle it: 85% on the floor, 5% to stick downstream.

30%

reaches a floor vote

83%

passes if voted (stage model)

18%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 85% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 30% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 64 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 35–94 (quartiles 53–78). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Privileged measure (CRA / reconciliation / similar): not filibusterable — a simple majority is the real line.

Receipts

Sponsor: Ruben Gallego (D). Latest action (2026-05-13): Motion to proceed to consideration of measure rejected in Senate by Voice Vote. (consideration: CR S2269-2270)
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).