S.J.Res. 140 — A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection relating to the withdrawal of the rule rel…

4%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States… — on the calendar, quiet for 24 days; 17% to reach the floor, 4% to become law.

17%

reaches a floor vote

97%

passes if voted (stage model)

23%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 49% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 17% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 63 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 31–94 (quartiles 52–76). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 49% (simple-majority P = 82%).

Receipts

Sponsor: Raphael G. Warnock (D). Latest action (2026-05-13): Motion to proceed to consideration of measure rejected in Senate by Voice Vote. (consideration: CR S2267)
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).