S.J.Res. 182 — A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the Department of Education relating to "William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan (Direct Lo…

6%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States C… — privileged, so 51 senators settle it: 87% on the floor, 6% to stick downstream.

45%

reaches a floor vote

81%

passes if voted (stage model)

18%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 87% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 45% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 66 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 40–94 (quartiles 54–80). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Privileged measure (CRA / reconciliation / similar): not filibusterable — a simple majority is the real line.

Receipts

Sponsor: Tim Kaine (D). Latest action (2026-05-20): Motion to proceed to consideration of measure rejected in Senate by Voice Vote. (CR S2407)
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).