S.J.Res. 185 — A joint resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress.

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities wit… — privileged, so 51 senators settle it: 80% on the floor, <1% to stick downstream.

reaches a floor vote

97%

passes if voted (stage model)

12%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 80% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 8% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 62 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 31–93 (quartiles 51–76). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Privileged measure (CRA / reconciliation / similar): not filibusterable — a simple majority is the real line.

Receipts

Sponsor: Tim Kaine (D). Latest action (2026-05-19): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 415.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).