535.fyi Calibrated odds on what Congress actually does. backtest-calibrated · live scoring as votes land · track record

← all forecasts

S.J.Res. 7 — A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the Federal Communications Commission relating to "Addressing the Homework Gap Through…

7%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

Congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States C… — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 393 days; projected 285 yea if called, enactment 7%.

passed the Senate
7%
downstream: House + President
=
7%
becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 285 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 195–414 (quartiles 213–372). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

ProcedureLikelihood Projected yeaPasses
passage24% 244 [186–372] 83%
resolution22% 244 [170–374] 79%
suspension55% 319 [211–416] 97%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ted Cruz (R). Latest action (2025-05-09): Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).