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S.J.Res. 81 — A joint resolution terminating the national emergency declared to impose duties on articles imported from Brazil.
51%becomes law
high confidencepending: House
passed_one_chamber
Terminating the national emergency declared to impose duties on artic… — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 218 days; projected 301 yea if called, enactment 51%.
→
51%
downstream: House + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 301 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 186–415
(quartiles 228–382). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
House would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| passage | 24% |
258 [141–403] |
76% |
| resolution | 22% |
253 [113–397] |
74% |
| suspension | 55% |
339 [220–417] |
99% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Tim Kaine (D). Latest action (2025-10-31):
Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).