S.J.Res. 98 — A joint resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against Venezuela that have not been authorized by Congress.

2%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities wit… — privileged, so 51 senators settle it: 84% on the floor, 2% to stick downstream.

11%

reaches a floor vote

97%

passes if voted (stage model)

15%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 84% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 11% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 65 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 34–94 (quartiles 53–80). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Privileged measure (CRA / reconciliation / similar): not filibusterable — a simple majority is the real line.

Receipts

Sponsor: Tim Kaine (D). Latest action (2026-01-14): Point of order that the measure is not entitled to expedited procedures under 50 U.S.C. 1546(a) raised against the measure agreed to in Senate by Yea-Nay Vote. 50 - 50. Record Vote Number: 9.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).