S.Res. 226 — A resolution condemning the Government of the People's Republic of China for engaging in transnational repression.

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Condemning the Government of the People's Republic of China for engag… — would clear the Senate (71%) but only 13% to ever get the vote.

13%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

<1%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 71% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 13% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 71 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 45–97 (quartiles 58–88). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 71% (simple-majority P = 93%).

Receipts

Sponsor: Jeff Merkley (D). Latest action (2025-10-30): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 247.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).