S.Res. 227 — A resolution condemning Hamas for its premeditated, coordinated, and brutal terrorist attacks on October 7, 2023, against Israel and demanding that Hamas immediately release all remaining hostages and return them to saf…

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Condemning Hamas for its premeditated, coordinated, and brutal terror… — would clear the Senate (79%) but only 8% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

<1%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 79% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 8% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 75 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 48–97 (quartiles 62–91). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 79% (simple-majority P = 95%).

Receipts

Sponsor: Jacky Rosen (D). Latest action (2025-06-18): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 101.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).