S.Res. 29 — An original resolution expressing the sense of the Senate that the President of the United States possesses legal authority under existing law to take immediate and necessary action to secure the southwest border of the…

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

An original resolution expressing the sense of the Senate that the Pr… — on the calendar, quiet for 501 days; <1% to reach the floor, <1% to become law.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

<1%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 45% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 64 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 45–93 (quartiles 52–80). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 45% (simple-majority P = 93%).

Receipts

Sponsor: Rand Paul (R). Latest action (2025-01-21): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 5.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).