S.Res. 409 — A resolution recognizing the 74th anniversary of the signing of the Mutual Defense Treaty between the United States and the Philippines and the strong bilateral security alliance between our two nations in the wake of e…

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Recognizing the 74th anniversary of the signing of the Mutual Defense… — would clear the Senate (70%) but only 18% to ever get the vote.

18%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

<1%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 70% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 18% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 75 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 51–98 (quartiles 58–93). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 70% (simple-majority P = 97%).

Receipts

Sponsor: Pete Ricketts (R). Latest action (2025-10-30): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 248.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).