S.Res. 52 — A resolution recognizing religious freedom as a fundamental right, expressing support for international religious freedom as a cornerstone of United States foreign policy, and expressing concern over increased threats t…

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Recognizing religious freedom as a fundamental right, expressing supp… — on the calendar, quiet for 345 days; 10% to reach the floor, <1% to become law.

10%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

<1%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 65% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 10% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 74 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 51–97 (quartiles 56–93). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 65% (simple-majority P = 98%).

Receipts

Sponsor: James Lankford (R). Latest action (2025-06-26): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 105.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).