S.Res. 520 — An executive resolution authorizing the en bloc consideration in Executive Session of certain nominations on the Executive Calendar.

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

An executive resolution authorizing the en bloc consideration in Exec… — on the calendar, quiet for 184 days; 3% to reach the floor, <1% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

<1%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 49% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 3% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 67 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 48–95 (quartiles 53–86). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 49% (simple-majority P = 95%).

Receipts

Sponsor: John Thune (R). Latest action (2025-12-04): Cloture, not having achieved 60 votes in the affirmative, was not invoked in Senate by Yea-Nay Vote. 43 - 37. Record Vote Number: 633. (CR S8501)
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).