S.Res. 86 — A resolution expressing the sense of the Senate regarding United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 (XXVI) and the harmful conflation of China's "One China Principle" and the United States'"One China Policy".

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Expressing the sense of the Senate regarding United Nations General A… — on the calendar, quiet for 404 days; 11% to reach the floor, <1% to become law.

11%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

<1%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 68% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 11% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 74 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 50–97 (quartiles 57–92). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 68% (simple-majority P = 96%).

Receipts

Sponsor: James E. Risch (R). Latest action (2025-04-28): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 56.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).